Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 31%, against 21% on a calm day. Safest: UA 2621 at 20:18, 24%.

Safest bet today UA 2621 IAH 20:18 → AUS 21:25 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time Riskiest UA 2674 IAH 18:50 → AUS 19:57 · 46% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Weather 31% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 2621 United Flight history →	IAH 20:18	AUS 21:25	24%	9%	0.7%	73%
UA 1179 United Flight history →	IAH 22:15	AUS 23:12	25%	8%	0.7%	82%
UA 1823 United Flight history →	IAH 10:15	AUS 11:19	26%	9%	0.5%	79%
UA 1859 United Flight history →	IAH 12:05	AUS 13:12	30%	9%	0.5%	82%worse than usual
UA 2483 United Flight history →	IAH 14:25	AUS 15:34	30%	10%	0.6%	84%worse than usual
UA 1711 United Flight history →	IAH 16:20	AUS 17:27	38%	11%	0.5%	70%
UA 2674 United Flight history →	IAH 18:50	AUS 19:57	46%	14%	0.5%	57%
UA 6118 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 14:20	AUS 15:29	21%	10%	0.0%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON