Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 1353 at 07:25 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22–25%.

Safest bet that day UA 1353 IAH 07:25 → TPA 10:45 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest UA 1312 IAH 18:10 → TPA 21:29 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1353 United Flight history →	IAH 07:25	TPA 10:45	9%	3%	0.7%	94%
UA 1501 United Flight history →	IAH 12:50	TPA 16:12	22%	6%	0.9%	74%
UA 2812 United Flight history →	IAH 14:34	TPA 17:55	23%	6%	0.9%	81%
UA 1312 United Flight history →	IAH 18:10	TPA 21:29	25%	6%	1.2%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON