Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:59 pm at Wilmington); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 60%, against 41% on a calm day. Safest: B6 1290 at 16:30, 60%.

Nonstops today


B6 1290 JetBlue Flight history →	ILM 16:30	BOS 18:34	60%	35%	1.1%	60%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Boston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ILM 18:48 → ATL 20:35DL 1292	2h 05m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → BOS 01:20 +1DL 865	6h 32m	90%	64%
Delta Details →	ILM 17:17 → LGA 18:59DL 5212 · flown by Endeavor	3h 01m New York	LGA 22:00 → BOS 23:15DL 5839 · flown by Republic	5h 58m	88%	59%
American Details →	ILM 18:57 → PHL 20:42AA 6012 · flown by Piedmont	1h 17m Philadelphia	PHL 21:59 → BOS 23:19AA 834	4h 22m	81%	39%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	ILM 18:09 → CLT 19:22AA 5416 · flown by PSA	1h 03m Charlotte	CLT 20:25 → BOS 22:34AA 1843	4h 25m	71%	37%
American Details →	ILM 19:52 → DCA 21:28AA 5229 · flown by PSA	1h 02m Washington	DCA 22:30 → BOS 23:59AA 4051 · flown by Envoy	4h 07m	58%	36%
Delta Details →	ILM 17:17 → LGA 18:59DL 5212 · flown by Endeavor	1h 01m New York	LGA 20:00 → BOS 21:39DL 5850 · flown by Republic	4h 22m	61%	31%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON