Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 8:50 am at Indianapolis); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 19–24% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


WN 4794 Southwest	IND 20:30	HOU 22:07	19%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 2124 Southwest Flight history →	IND 20:20	HOU 21:50	24%	4%	0.2%	76%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind Indianapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	IND 19:15 → DEN 20:05WN 1064	2h 23m Denver	DEN 22:28 → HOU 01:55 +1WN 1601	7h 40m	97%	74%
Delta Details →	IND 10:07 → ATL 11:43DL 3125	3h 29m Atlanta	ATL 15:12 → HOU 16:22DL 2381	7h 15m	99%	72%
Southwest Details →	IND 14:55 → DEN 15:35WN 4826	3h 05m Denver	DEN 18:40 → HOU 22:15WN 606	8h 20m	97%	72%
American Details →	IND 13:36 → DFW 15:03AA 1955	3h 25m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:28 → HOU 20:05AA 3391 · flown by Envoy	7h 29m	95%	71%
Southwest Details →	IND 10:15 → BWI 11:55WN 313	1h 05m Baltimore	BWI 13:00 → HOU 15:15WN 4254	6h 00m	93%	70%
Southwest Details →	IND 13:10 → DEN 13:50WN 2119	2h 20m Denver	DEN 16:10 → HOU 19:36WN 1599	7h 26m	99%	68%
Southwest Details →	IND 17:40 → MDW 17:55WN 961	3h 45m Chicago	MDW 21:40 → HOU 00:15 +1WN 954	7h 35m	100%	68%
Southwest Details →	IND 09:10 → MCO 11:25WN 2130	1h 20m Orlando	MCO 12:45 → HOU 14:13WN 2721	6h 03m	98%	68%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	IND 20:19 → DFW 21:44AA 1945	54m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:38 → HOU 23:56AA 5465 · flown by PSA	4h 37m	65%	44%
Southwest Details →	IND 16:10 → MCO 18:40WN 3271	55m Orlando	MCO 19:35 → HOU 21:05WN 4493	5h 55m	70%	36%
Southwest Details →	IND 18:45 → MCO 21:10WN 4537	1h 10m Orlando	MCO 22:20 → HOU 23:50WN 2645	6h 05m	69%	36%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON