Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 3140 at 07:08 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–34%.

Safest bet that day AA 3140 JAX 07:08 → MIA 08:32 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 3605 JAX 19:37 → MIA 20:57 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 38% on time

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3140 American Flight history →	JAX 07:08	MIA 08:32	10%	6%	0.6%	93%
AA 3492 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	JAX 08:00	MIA 09:20	10%	4%	1.1%	83%
AA 3609 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	JAX 09:59	MIA 11:20	12%	4%	0.8%	90%
MQ 3672 Envoy	JAX 14:02	MIA 15:32	20%	9%	1.2%	no record
AA 2711 American Flight history →	JAX 11:36	MIA 13:05	20%	7%	1.3%	93%worse than usual
MQ 4148 Envoy	JAX 20:48	MIA 22:17	30%	9%	1.6%	no record
MQ 3956 Envoy	JAX 18:17	MIA 19:42	30%	12%	1.8%	no record
AA 3605 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	JAX 19:37	MIA 20:57	34%	11%	1.6%	38%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON