tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:42 am at Las Vegas); 3 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, G4 8 at 16:12, with a 37% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today

All 1 nonstop →
G4 8 Allegiant Flight history → LAS 16:12 DSM 21:11 37% 9% 0.3% 88%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Des Moines on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Des Moines is 2 h ahead of Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → LAS 12:33 → ORD 18:44AA 3039 3h 47m Chicago ORD 22:31 → DSM 00:01 +1AA 4442 · flown by Republic 9h 28m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → LAS 11:44 → MSP 16:54DL 2272 3h 25m Minneapolis MSP 20:19 → DSM 21:34DL 5253 · flown by Endeavor 7h 50m 98% 83%
UnitedDetails → LAS 12:44 → ORD 18:26UA 314 2h 59m Chicago ORD 21:25 → DSM 22:56UA 1839 8h 12m 99% 79%
UnitedDetails → LAS 12:08 → DEN 14:32UA 1006 3h 08m Denver DEN 17:40 → DSM 20:30UA 549 6h 22m 94% 65%
SouthwestDetails → LAS 12:40 → DEN 15:35WN 2227 4h 00m Denver DEN 19:35 → DSM 22:25WN 2940 7h 45m 100% 64%
UnitedDetails → LAS 12:14 → IAH 17:25UA 2492 2h 47m Houston IAH 20:12 → DSM 22:35UA 1780 8h 21m 95% 64%
UnitedDetails → LAS 16:25 → DEN 19:30UA 2108 1h 37m Denver DEN 21:07 → DSM 00:02 +1UA 1213 5h 37m 86% 56%
AmericanDetails → LAS 14:02 → DFW 19:03AA 777 3h 02m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:05 → DSM 23:58AA 1371 7h 56m 92% 54%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → LAS 13:12 → ATL 20:24DL 466 51m Atlanta ATL 21:15 → DSM 22:29DL 2306 7h 17m 63% 50%
AmericanDetails → LAS 16:34 → PHX 17:48AA 3186 1h 02m Phoenix PHX 18:50 → DSM 23:39AA 568 5h 05m 61% 36%
AmericanDetails → LAS 13:56 → CLT 21:36AA 2038 57m Charlotte CLT 22:33 → DSM 00:10 +1AA 1393 8h 14m 63% 33%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON