Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 47%, against 32% on a calm day. Safest: WN 4342 at 06:05, 15%.

Safest bet today WN 4342 LAS 06:05 → SAN 07:15 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest WN 2394 LAS 13:50 → SAN 15:07 · 69% chance 15+ min late

Weather 47% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 32% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 4342 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 06:05	SAN 07:15	15%	2%	0.6%	88%
WN 2044 Southwest	LAS 06:28	SAN 07:45	15%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1403 Southwest	LAS 07:25	SAN 08:42	26%	4%	0.6%	no record
OO 3324 SkyWest	LAS 08:30	SAN 09:51	36%	11%	0.8%	no record
WN 2121 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 08:40	SAN 09:55	38%	6%	0.5%	65%
WN 2871 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 22:15	SAN 23:30	41%	7%	0.7%	29%
WN 1762 Southwest	LAS 09:30	SAN 10:47	42%	7%	0.5%	no record
WN 2397 Southwest	LAS 22:45	SAN 00:03	42%	6%	0.8%	no record
WN 1227 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 21:30	SAN 22:45	44%	8%	0.7%	40%
WN 2317 Southwest	LAS 21:50	SAN 23:07	44%	7%	0.8%	no record
DL 3741 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAS 12:57	SAN 14:13	49%	14%	0.8%	79%worse than usual
WN 775 Southwest	LAS 17:25	SAN 18:43	50%	8%	0.7%	no record
WN 1288 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 18:05	SAN 19:20	50%	8%	0.7%	10%
WN 2330 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 18:55	SAN 20:10	50%	9%	0.7%	28%
WN 2187 Southwest	LAS 19:36	SAN 20:53	50%	8%	0.7%	no record
WN 2399 Southwest	LAS 15:15	SAN 16:32	51%	9%	0.7%	no record
WN 374 Southwest	LAS 16:00	SAN 17:18	51%	8%	0.7%	no record
WN 3620 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 16:00	SAN 17:15	51%	9%	0.7%	43%
F9 1469 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 18:50	SAN 20:06	56%	13%	0.9%	67%worse than usual
WN 347 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 10:00	SAN 11:15	58%	14%	0.5%	58%worse than usual
WN 3168 Southwest	LAS 11:15	SAN 12:33	58%	14%	0.6%	no record
WN 1483 Southwest	LAS 12:20	SAN 13:37	63%	17%	0.6%	no record
WN 1771 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 13:50	SAN 15:05	68%	20%	0.6%	50%worse than usual
WN 2394 Southwest	LAS 13:50	SAN 15:07	69%	20%	0.6%	no record
AS 2252 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	LAS 06:50	SAN 08:04	24%	4%	3.8%	76%
AS 2416 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	LAS 11:11	SAN 12:29	35%	4%	4.7%	65%
AS 2253 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	LAS 07:59	SAN 09:15	56%	8%	2.0%	44%
AS 2282 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	LAS 14:38	SAN 15:57	68%	30%	2.2%	32%
AS 2251 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	LAS 18:19	SAN 19:36	76%	33%	9.8%	24%
AS 2219 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	LAS 19:21	SAN 20:39	96%	59%	10.0%	4%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON