Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 21 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 2738 at 06:31 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–41%.

Safest bet that day WN 2738 LGA 06:31 → BNA 07:56 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4797 LGA 16:35 → BNA 18:04 · 41% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 2738 Southwest	LGA 06:31	BNA 07:56	6%	1%	0.7%	no record
DL 5638 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 06:56	BNA 08:31	7%	2%	0.6%	90%
WN 2447 Southwest Flight history →	LGA 07:25	BNA 08:50	7%	2%	0.7%	78%
DL 5688 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 07:10	BNA 08:45	8%	2%	0.6%	89%
AA 4364 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 08:27	BNA 10:05	8%	2%	0.7%	88%
YX 4482 Republic	LGA 08:31	BNA 10:06	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
YX 5617 Republic	LGA 10:30	BNA 12:06	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 3199 Southwest	LGA 09:36	BNA 11:03	13%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 4481 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 11:44	BNA 13:29	15%	3%	0.7%	70%
WN 470 Southwest Flight history →	LGA 11:05	BNA 12:30	20%	4%	0.7%	65%
DL 2748 Delta Flight history →	LGA 13:55	BNA 15:31	20%	6%	0.6%	82%
AA 2302 American Flight history →	LGA 12:00	BNA 13:33	22%	8%	1.2%	76%
AA 4372 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 14:43	BNA 16:24	26%	5%	0.7%	77%
AA 4392 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 19:59	BNA 21:43	26%	6%	0.7%	63%
AA 4380 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 14:57	BNA 16:35	27%	5%	0.7%	65%
WN 2449 Southwest Flight history →	LGA 19:45	BNA 21:30	33%	12%	0.8%	68%
WN 2448 Southwest Flight history →	LGA 17:30	BNA 19:25	34%	14%	0.8%	53%
WN 4797 Southwest	LGA 16:35	BNA 18:04	41%	14%	0.8%	no record
DL 5438 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 10:30	BNA 12:00	22%	10%	1.9%	78%
DL 4723 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 19:15	BNA 21:00	37%	21%	20.8%	63%
DL 5002 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 17:27	BNA 19:19	38%	18%	15.1%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON