Today: AA 4506 at 12:40 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15–30%.

Safest bet today AA 4506 LGA 12:40 → CAE 14:55 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time Riskiest YX 4619 LGA 21:24 → CAE 23:43 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4506 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 12:40	CAE 14:55	15%	3%	0.4%	77%
AA 4697 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 12:29	CAE 14:42	15%	3%	0.3%	81%
YX 4619 Republic	LGA 21:24	CAE 23:43	30%	7%	0.8%	no record
DL 5089 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 13:15	CAE 15:25	30%	14%	3.8%	70%
DL 5057 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 20:59	CAE 23:16	34%	18%	9.3%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON