Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 27 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 1597 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 39–52%.

Safest bet that day AA 1597 LGA 06:30 → DFW 09:23 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest F9 3423 LGA 20:32 → DFW 23:42 · 52% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Against a calm day 34% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 25% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1597 American Flight history →	LGA 06:30	DFW 09:23	15%	7%	1.0%	89%
DL 873 Delta Flight history →	LGA 07:00	DFW 09:35	18%	6%	0.9%	78%
AA 3289 American Flight history →	LGA 07:30	DFW 10:23	20%	7%	0.8%	77%
DL 856 Delta Flight history →	LGA 09:30	DFW 12:09	22%	4%	0.7%	82%
AA 840 American	LGA 11:42	DFW 14:44	22%	6%	2.7%	no record
AA 1987 American Flight history →	LGA 08:35	DFW 11:25	22%	8%	0.9%	81%
AA 1166 American Flight history →	LGA 11:15	DFW 14:11	23%	7%	2.1%	79%
DL 869 Delta Flight history →	LGA 12:29	DFW 15:10	24%	5%	0.8%	75%
AA 3068 American Flight history →	LGA 10:00	DFW 12:54	26%	8%	2.6%	80%
AA 1806 American Flight history →	LGA 10:30	DFW 13:32	26%	7%	2.7%	80%
AA 1609 American Flight history →	LGA 13:08	DFW 15:58	30%	8%	2.1%	71%
AA 2503 American	LGA 13:00	DFW 15:51	30%	8%	2.7%	no record
AA 1056 American Flight history →	LGA 14:00	DFW 17:05	33%	9%	2.1%	65%
DL 846 Delta Flight history →	LGA 15:00	DFW 18:01	35%	9%	0.8%	65%
AA 1043 American Flight history →	LGA 15:00	DFW 18:05	37%	10%	2.1%	61%
AA 2447 American	LGA 15:07	DFW 18:03	37%	12%	2.3%	no record
AA 3295 American	LGA 14:17	DFW 17:09	37%	9%	2.7%	no record
DL 352 Delta Flight history →	LGA 18:55	DFW 22:02	39%	14%	0.9%	55%
AA 1608 American Flight history →	LGA 16:00	DFW 19:15	41%	12%	2.3%	63%
AA 3103 American Flight history →	LGA 17:01	DFW 20:10	44%	13%	2.1%	60%
AA 3323 American Flight history →	LGA 19:59	DFW 23:05	44%	14%	2.7%	67%worse than usual
AA 2388 American Flight history →	LGA 18:00	DFW 21:00	46%	15%	2.1%	46%
AA 2092 American Flight history →	LGA 20:01	DFW 22:54	46%	17%	2.7%	59%
AA 2238 American	LGA 17:00	DFW 19:56	46%	14%	3.2%	no record
AA 1334 American	LGA 19:04	DFW 21:57	48%	15%	4.4%	no record
AA 675 American	LGA 18:21	DFW 21:09	50%	16%	3.6%	no record
F9 3423 Frontier Flight history →	LGA 20:32	DFW 23:42	52%	26%	2.0%	63%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON