Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:03 pm at New York)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 36–40% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


DL 4904 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	LGA 17:28	DSM 19:27	36%	10%	0.4%	65%
AA 4395 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 18:29	DSM 20:51	40%	12%	0.5%	67%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Des Moines on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Des Moines is 1 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	LGA 18:19 → ORD 19:58AA 3163	2h 33m Chicago	ORD 22:31 → DSM 00:01 +1AA 4442 · flown by Republic	6h 42m	94%	81%
United Details →	LGA 16:25 → ORD 18:17UA 1156	3h 08m Chicago	ORD 21:25 → DSM 22:56UA 1839	7h 31m	89%	71%
Southwest Details →	LGA 17:30 → MDW 19:20WN 4746	2h 45m Chicago	MDW 22:05 → DSM 23:35WN 4279	7h 05m	88%	69%
American Details →	LGA 17:09 → DCA 18:41AA 4736 · flown by Republic	1h 34m Washington	DCA 20:15 → DSM 21:57AA 3685 · flown by Envoy	5h 48m	85%	62%
United Details →	LGA 16:59 → DEN 19:35UA 2834	1h 33m Denver	DEN 21:08 → DSM 00:03 +1UA 1213	8h 04m	76%	51%
American Details →	LGA 17:00 → CLT 19:18AA 1320	3h 26m Charlotte	CLT 22:44 → DSM 00:09 +1AA 2241	8h 09m	96%	49%
American Details →	LGA 18:15 → CLT 20:33AA 1942	2h 00m Charlotte	CLT 22:33 → DSM 00:11 +1AA 1393	6h 56m	85%	44%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	LGA 19:25 → ORD 21:35AA 3318	56m Chicago	ORD 22:31 → DSM 00:01 +1AA 4442 · flown by Republic	5h 36m	48%	42%
Delta Details →	LGA 17:00 → ATL 20:24DL 968	51m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → DSM 22:29DL 2306	6h 29m	47%	36%
American Details →	LGA 18:00 → DFW 21:00AA 2388	1h 05m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:05 → DSM 23:58AA 1371	6h 58m	54%	29%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON