Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 20%, against 8% on a calm day. Safest: WN 431 at 06:01, 8%.

Safest bet that day WN 431 LGA 06:01 → HOU 08:50 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2460 LGA 17:40 → HOU 20:55 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Weather 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 431 Southwest	LGA 06:01	HOU 08:50	8%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 4572 Southwest Flight history →	LGA 08:30	HOU 11:15	15%	3%	0.7%	81%
WN 1711 Southwest Flight history →	LGA 10:30	HOU 13:20	20%	4%	0.7%	87%
WN 4222 Southwest	LGA 11:15	HOU 14:07	20%	5%	0.7%	no record
WN 4861 Southwest Flight history →	LGA 13:40	HOU 16:30	26%	7%	0.8%	54%
WN 2460 Southwest Flight history →	LGA 17:40	HOU 20:55	31%	16%	0.8%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON