Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 25%, against 12% on a calm day. Safest: AA 4601 at 09:23, 10%.

Safest bet that day AA 4601 LGA 09:23 → IND 11:53 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest AA 4427 LGA 18:58 → IND 21:24 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Weather 25% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4601 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 09:23	IND 11:53	10%	3%	0.7%	80%
AA 4565 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 09:25	IND 11:50	11%	3%	0.7%	82%
DL 5642 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 11:45	IND 14:06	16%	4%	0.7%	85%
DL 5646 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 14:43	IND 17:13	25%	6%	0.7%	83%
YX 5673 Republic	LGA 20:07	IND 22:33	28%	9%	0.7%	no record
DL 5635 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 17:42	IND 20:24	30%	9%	0.8%	74%
YX 4409 Republic	LGA 15:04	IND 17:25	31%	7%	0.7%	no record
AA 4793 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 17:40	IND 20:12	31%	9%	0.8%	75%
AA 4458 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 18:59	IND 21:29	31%	10%	0.8%	75%
AA 4427 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 18:58	IND 21:24	33%	10%	0.8%	66%
DL 4883 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 08:15	IND 10:30	15%	2%	4.2%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON