Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 6:00 pm at New York); 4 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 58%, against 37% on a calm day. Safest: YX 4338 at 18:43, 58%.

Nonstops today


YX 4338 Republic	LGA 18:43	MSN 20:23	58%	32%	0.5%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Madison on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Madison is 1 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	LGA 18:19 → ORD 19:57AA 3163	3h 03m Chicago	ORD 23:00 → MSN 00:10 +1AA 3728 · flown by Envoy	6h 51m	94%	81%
Delta Details →	LGA 18:05 → MSP 20:05DL 2313	1h 54m Minneapolis	MSP 21:59 → MSN 23:00DL 1599	5h 55m	77%	63%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	LGA 18:05 → MSP 20:43DL 2015	1h 16m Minneapolis	MSP 21:59 → MSN 23:00DL 1599	5h 55m	50%	41%
United Details →	LGA 18:25 → ORD 20:12UA 1098	1h 12m Chicago	ORD 21:24 → MSN 22:23UA 1251	4h 58m	54%	37%
American Details →	LGA 19:27 → CLT 21:19AA 2390	1h 09m Charlotte	CLT 22:28 → MSN 23:42AA 1426	5h 15m	50%	26%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON