Today: YX 4431 at 09:25 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–28%.

Safest bet today YX 4431 LGA 09:25 → ORF 11:05 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest YX 5695 LGA 20:51 → ORF 22:23 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 4431 Republic	LGA 09:25	ORF 11:05	11%	4%	0.5%	no record
AA 4471 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 13:08	ORF 14:40	16%	5%	0.4%	72%
AA 4589 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 20:29	ORF 22:04	27%	7%	1.2%	66%
YX 5695 Republic	LGA 20:51	ORF 22:23	28%	6%	1.0%	no record
DL 5329 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 12:29	ORF 14:04	23%	11%	7.3%	77%
DL 5333 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 08:25	ORF 09:51	26%	10%	5.0%	74%
DL 5332 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 20:55	ORF 22:52	37%	13%	16.7%	63%
DL 5348 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 16:48	ORF 18:33	40%	16%	7.6%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON