Today: AA 4420 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–35%.

Safest bet today AA 4420 LGA 07:00 → PIT 08:38 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time Riskiest AA 4410 LGA 18:25 → PIT 20:08 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4420 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 07:00	PIT 08:38	9%	3%	0.5%	79%
DL 5786 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 08:14	PIT 09:53	10%	4%	0.4%	84%
YX 4437 Republic	LGA 08:09	PIT 09:48	10%	4%	0.4%	no record
AA 4579 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 09:59	PIT 11:39	16%	4%	0.6%	82%
DL 5694 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 10:38	PIT 12:16	16%	4%	0.5%	86%
YX 4538 Republic	LGA 12:52	PIT 14:31	18%	5%	0.7%	no record
DL 5715 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 13:10	PIT 14:47	19%	5%	0.7%	87%
AA 4479 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 13:29	PIT 15:04	20%	5%	0.7%	85%
YX 4480 Republic	LGA 14:49	PIT 16:27	25%	5%	0.7%	no record
DL 5722 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 21:20	PIT 23:09	27%	6%	0.8%	72%
DL 5843 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 16:05	PIT 18:00	28%	7%	0.8%	82%worse than usual
DL 5787 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 19:02	PIT 20:41	31%	7%	0.8%	100%worse than usual
AA 4410 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 18:25	PIT 20:08	35%	7%	0.8%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON