Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:46 pm at New York); 3 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, DL 5003 at 19:10, with a 26% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


DL 5003 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	LGA 19:10	TYS 21:17	26%	6%	0.3%	67%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Knoxville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LGA 14:55 → MSP 17:06DL 2349	3h 13m Minneapolis	MSP 20:19 → TYS 23:31DL 5527 · flown by Endeavor	8h 36m	97%	84%
Delta Details →	LGA 15:00 → ATL 18:02DL 974	3h 02m Atlanta	ATL 21:04 → TYS 22:07DL 5224 · flown by Endeavor	7h 07m	93%	78%
Delta Details →	LGA 16:00 → ATL 19:07DL 969	3h 46m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → TYS 23:52DL 3072	7h 52m	98%	77%
United Details →	LGA 14:51 → IAD 16:35UA 3688 · flown by Republic	2h 15m Dulles	IAD 18:50 → TYS 20:39UA 4914 · flown by CommuteAir	5h 48m	94%	77%
American Details →	LGA 15:30 → MIA 19:06AA 3017	1h 42m Miami	MIA 20:48 → TYS 23:03AA 2025	7h 33m	85%	61%
American Details →	LGA 17:00 → CLT 19:18AA 1320	3h 22m Charlotte	CLT 22:40 → TYS 23:51AA 5511 · flown by PSA	6h 51m	97%	58%
American Details →	LGA 16:00 → DFW 19:15AA 1608	1h 26m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:41 → TYS 23:51AA 1081	7h 51m	77%	47%
American Details →	LGA 15:09 → DCA 16:46AA 4685 · flown by Republic	3h 00m Washington	DCA 19:46 → TYS 21:33AA 5484 · flown by PSA	6h 24m	95%	45%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	LGA 17:00 → DTW 19:39DL 999	54m Detroit	DTW 20:33 → TYS 22:12DL 5138 · flown by Endeavor	5h 12m	65%	56%
American Details →	LGA 16:00 → ORD 18:08AA 396	1h 01m Chicago	ORD 19:09 → TYS 21:58AA 5001 · flown by SkyWest	5h 58m	64%	50%
Southwest Details →	LGA 17:30 → BNA 19:25WN 2448	1h 15m Nashville	BNA 20:40 → TYS 22:41WN 4523	5h 11m	71%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON