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Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 16:55, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Orlando on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Orlando is 3 h ahead of Long Beach). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LGB 16:55 → SLC 19:58DL 3793 · flown by SkyWest 3h 38m Salt Lake City SLC 23:36 → MCO 06:00 +1DL 2069 10h 05m 99% 83%
SouthwestDetails → LGB 19:00 → SMF 20:30WN 2507 1h 40m Sacramento SMF 22:10 → MCO 06:15 +1WN 3799 8h 15m 97% 82%
SouthwestDetails → LGB 18:15 → LAS 19:25WN 2485 3h 25m Las Vegas LAS 22:50 → MCO 06:25 +1WN 4590 9h 10m 100% 79%
SouthwestDetails → LGB 20:15 → PHX 21:50WN 2494 1h 15m Phoenix PHX 23:05 → MCO 06:20 +1WN 4508 7h 05m 88% 76%
SouthwestDetails → LGB 08:15 → MDW 14:05WN 4542 3h 05m Chicago MDW 17:10 → MCO 20:55WN 164 9h 40m 100% 74%
SouthwestDetails → LGB 07:55 → DEN 11:10WN 4574 3h 00m Denver DEN 14:10 → MCO 20:05WN 1495 9h 10m 100% 70%
SouthwestDetails → LGB 08:50 → HOU 14:05WN 2483 4h 00m Houston HOU 18:05 → MCO 21:30WN 2036 9h 40m 100% 69%
SouthwestDetails → LGB 10:30 → BNA 16:30WN 165 4h 00m Nashville BNA 20:30 → MCO 23:35WN 572 10h 05m 100% 69%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON