Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 7:49 am at Midland)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 29%, against 15% on a calm day. Safest: WN 4207 at 13:30, 28%.

Nonstops today


WN 4207 Southwest Flight history →	MAF 13:30	AUS 14:35	28%	7%	1.0%	76%
WN 435 Southwest	MAF 13:55	AUS 15:13	31%	8%	0.9%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	MAF 09:37 → IAH 11:15UA 6260 · flown by Mesa	3h 05m Houston	IAH 14:20 → AUS 15:29UA 6118 · flown by Mesa	5h 52m	98%	77%
United Details →	MAF 17:13 → IAH 18:55UA 4001 · flown by Mesa	3h 20m Houston	IAH 22:15 → AUS 23:12UA 1179	5h 59m	99%	72%
Southwest Details →	MAF 14:40 → DAL 16:00WN 1277	3h 35m Dallas	DAL 19:35 → AUS 20:45WN 187	6h 05m	98%	71%
American Details →	MAF 08:30 → DFW 09:57AA 3343 · flown by Envoy	3h 58m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:55 → AUS 15:00AA 3726 · flown by Envoy	6h 30m	96%	70%
Southwest Details →	MAF 18:05 → HOU 19:40WN 2526	3h 15m Houston	HOU 22:55 → AUS 23:55WN 1953	5h 50m	99%	67%
American Details →	MAF 11:45 → DFW 13:10AA 3651 · flown by Envoy	2h 06m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 15:16 → AUS 16:21AA 3400 · flown by Envoy	4h 36m	94%	65%
Southwest Details →	MAF 18:35 → DAL 19:55WN 57	2h 00m Dallas	DAL 21:55 → AUS 23:05WN 4887	4h 30m	89%	64%
United Details →	MAF 17:23 → DEN 18:25UA 5472 · flown by SkyWest	2h 02m Denver	DEN 20:27 → AUS 23:44UA 1943	6h 21m	90%	62%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	MAF 13:45 → DEN 14:47UA 4807 · flown by SkyWest	48m Denver	DEN 15:35 → AUS 18:48UA 1899	5h 03m	67%	42%
American Details →	MAF 18:42 → DFW 20:06AA 6199 · flown by SkyWest	1h 29m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:35 → AUS 22:39AA 972	3h 57m	62%	38%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON