Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 22%, against 11% on a calm day. Safest: WN 2577 at 15:35, 22%.

Nonstops that day


WN 2577 Southwest Flight history →	MCI 15:35	MSY 17:35	22%	6%	0.7%	76%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New Orleans on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	MCI 05:15 → MDW 06:40WN 4276	2h 00m Chicago	MDW 08:40 → MSY 11:01WN 1587	5h 46m	99%	88%
United Details →	MCI 09:34 → ORD 11:29UA 5504 · flown by SkyWest	2h 36m Chicago	ORD 14:05 → MSY 16:49UA 3658 · flown by Republic	7h 15m	100%	88%
Southwest Details →	MCI 05:55 → DEN 06:45WN 2545	1h 15m Denver	DEN 08:00 → MSY 11:45WN 1642	5h 50m	98%	86%
Southwest Details →	MCI 06:50 → AUS 08:40WN 2528	1h 25m Austin	AUS 10:05 → MSY 11:39WN 657	4h 49m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	MCI 09:13 → MSP 10:50DL 4867 · flown by Endeavor	1h 55m Minneapolis	MSP 12:45 → MSY 15:25DL 2695	6h 12m	94%	85%
Southwest Details →	MCI 05:30 → LAX 06:55WN 4827	1h 15m Los Angeles	LAX 08:10 → MSY 14:02WN 1843	8h 32m	97%	84%
Southwest Details →	MCI 06:15 → MDW 07:40WN 2569	1h 10m Chicago	MDW 08:50 → MSY 11:05WN 2834	4h 50m	95%	84%
Southwest Details →	MCI 07:50 → DAL 09:25WN 1540	1h 32m Dallas	DAL 10:57 → MSY 12:34WN 4831	4h 44m	100%	84%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	MCI 12:15 → CLT 15:43AA 2052	51m Charlotte	CLT 16:34 → MSY 17:41AA 2203	5h 26m	74%	45%
Southwest Details →	MCI 11:15 → LGA 15:00WN 2563	55m New York	LGA 15:55 → MSY 18:16WN 1256	7h 01m	66%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON