Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:22 pm at Kansas City)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, DL 4648 at 20:06, with a 14% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


DL 4648 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	MCI 20:06	RDU 23:30	14%	5%	0.6%	75%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Raleigh/Durham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Raleigh/Durham is 1 h ahead of Kansas City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	MCI 14:10 → MDW 15:35WN 2572	3h 20m Chicago	MDW 18:55 → RDU 21:50WN 4221	6h 40m	100%	81%
Delta Details →	MCI 16:04 → MSP 17:40DL 1613	2h 45m Minneapolis	MSP 20:25 → RDU 23:59DL 2932	6h 55m	100%	80%
American Details →	MCI 17:21 → ORD 19:29AA 4745 · flown by Republic	53m Chicago	ORD 20:22 → RDU 23:42AA 4615 · flown by Republic	5h 21m	84%	75%
Southwest Details →	MCI 16:05 → MDW 17:30WN 9	1h 20m Chicago	MDW 18:50 → RDU 21:48WN 4648	4h 43m	91%	74%
United Details →	MCI 15:16 → ORD 17:05UA 2792	1h 20m Chicago	ORD 18:25 → RDU 21:37UA 1989	5h 21m	94%	72%
Delta Details →	MCI 15:38 → ATL 18:48DL 1443	3h 10m Atlanta	ATL 21:58 → RDU 23:28DL 1154	6h 50m	96%	72%
Delta Details →	MCI 14:55 → SLC 16:32DL 2882	1h 19m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:51 → RDU 23:57DL 402	8h 02m	89%	72%
American Details →	MCI 13:30 → ORD 15:21AA 6249 · flown by SkyWest	3h 27m Chicago	ORD 18:48 → RDU 22:02AA 1510	7h 32m	97%	70%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	MCI 14:00 → CLT 17:14AA 1616	57m Charlotte	CLT 18:11 → RDU 19:18AA 2394	4h 18m	74%	52%
American Details →	MCI 17:21 → PHL 21:10AA 2875	50m Philadelphia	PHL 22:00 → RDU 23:34AA 3125	5h 13m	71%	47%
Southwest Details →	MCI 17:15 → DEN 18:10WN 1146	56m Denver	DEN 19:06 → RDU 00:28 +1WN 1746	6h 13m	69%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON