Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 27 nonstops

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 32%, against 14% on a calm day. Safest: DL 1548 at 05:30, 6%.

Safest bet that day DL 1548 MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:03 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest F9 3975 MCO 15:18 → ATL 17:09 · 66% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Weather 32% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1548 Delta Flight history →	MCO 05:30	ATL 07:03	6%	2%	1.8%	95%
DL 1494 Delta Flight history →	MCO 06:15	ATL 07:58	6%	2%	1.9%	94%
DL 2080 Delta Flight history →	MCO 07:05	ATL 08:46	11%	3%	2.1%	90%
DL 1505 Delta Flight history →	MCO 09:05	ATL 10:45	12%	3%	1.3%	88%
DL 2204 Delta Flight history →	MCO 10:05	ATL 11:41	14%	4%	1.2%	89%
DL 1463 Delta Flight history →	MCO 08:05	ATL 09:42	15%	3%	1.9%	90%
WN 191 Southwest	MCO 09:00	ATL 10:43	16%	3%	0.9%	no record
DL 1213 Delta Flight history →	MCO 11:05	ATL 12:42	16%	5%	1.3%	84%
DL 1658 Delta Flight history →	MCO 12:05	ATL 13:45	19%	5%	1.0%	81%
WN 2591 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 08:00	ATL 09:35	22%	3%	0.9%	88%
DL 664 Delta Flight history →	MCO 13:05	ATL 14:44	26%	5%	1.0%	82%
DL 1030 Delta Flight history →	MCO 14:05	ATL 15:55	27%	5%	1.0%	75%
DL 2035 Delta Flight history →	MCO 20:55	ATL 22:54	28%	12%	1.8%	72%
F9 1563 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 07:45	ATL 09:41	34%	11%	2.1%	84%worse than usual
F9 1241 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 10:00	ATL 11:46	37%	13%	1.3%	67%
DL 1372 Delta Flight history →	MCO 15:40	ATL 17:30	37%	9%	1.9%	67%
DL 1497 Delta Flight history →	MCO 19:55	ATL 21:48	37%	14%	2.1%	67%
DL 1150 Delta Flight history →	MCO 17:45	ATL 19:47	37%	14%	2.3%	60%
DL 1642 Delta Flight history →	MCO 16:45	ATL 18:35	41%	11%	2.2%	49%
DL 1576 Delta Flight history →	MCO 15:38	ATL 17:13	44%	8%	1.6%	72%worse than usual
DL 1742 Delta Flight history →	MCO 18:52	ATL 20:54	46%	15%	2.3%	55%
F9 3507 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 12:47	ATL 14:36	50%	16%	1.3%	70%worse than usual
WN 232 Southwest	MCO 15:15	ATL 16:58	51%	9%	0.9%	no record
WN 4922 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 15:30	ATL 17:15	51%	11%	0.9%	50%
WN 2529 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 19:10	ATL 20:55	56%	18%	1.2%	45%
F9 4025 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 17:24	ATL 19:25	64%	22%	2.7%	58%worse than usual
F9 3975 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 15:18	ATL 17:09	66%	19%	1.8%	60%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON