Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 30%, against 15% on a calm day. Safest: WN 436 at 08:00, 12%.

Safest bet that day WN 436 MCO 08:00 → BHM 08:40 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest WN 460 MCO 16:29 → BHM 17:13 · 49% chance 15+ min late

Weather 30% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 436 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 08:00	BHM 08:40	12%	2%	0.8%	83%
WN 143 Southwest	MCO 09:23	BHM 10:07	18%	3%	0.8%	no record
WN 4829 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 22:10	BHM 22:50	41%	13%	1.0%	49%
WN 460 Southwest	MCO 16:29	BHM 17:13	49%	12%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON