Today: AA 1896 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–44%.

Safest bet today AA 1896 MCO 05:00 → CLT 06:45 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest F9 2452 MCO 13:13 → CLT 15:04 · 46% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Against a calm day 28% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1896 American Flight history →	MCO 05:00	CLT 06:45	7%	2%	0.9%	94%
AA 2127 American Flight history →	MCO 06:00	CLT 07:43	9%	3%	0.8%	74%
AA 1525 American Flight history →	MCO 08:00	CLT 09:53	14%	4%	0.7%	92%
AA 461 American Flight history →	MCO 07:51	CLT 09:34	14%	4%	0.7%	93%
AA 609 American Flight history →	MCO 09:01	CLT 10:54	16%	6%	0.7%	89%
F9 1760 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 06:33	CLT 08:26	20%	8%	1.1%	65%
F9 1446 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 09:38	CLT 11:29	22%	9%	1.0%	92%worse than usual
AA 822 American	MCO 10:02	CLT 11:45	22%	6%	0.6%	no record
AA 1576 American	MCO 13:39	CLT 15:22	26%	6%	1.6%	no record
AA 2098 American Flight history →	MCO 15:32	CLT 17:30	28%	10%	1.2%	53%
AA 1670 American	MCO 12:40	CLT 14:28	31%	10%	0.6%	no record
AA 2117 American Flight history →	MCO 15:38	CLT 17:21	31%	10%	1.2%	81%worse than usual
AA 2074 American Flight history →	MCO 12:48	CLT 14:45	32%	9%	0.6%	89%worse than usual
AA 2082 American Flight history →	MCO 17:35	CLT 19:34	33%	10%	1.6%	49%
AA 2073 American Flight history →	MCO 11:40	CLT 13:31	35%	8%	0.7%	69%
AA 3052 American	MCO 11:46	CLT 13:38	35%	8%	0.7%	no record
AA 1611 American	MCO 17:28	CLT 19:11	35%	9%	1.8%	no record
AA 3293 American	MCO 19:28	CLT 21:11	41%	13%	2.2%	no record
AA 2100 American Flight history →	MCO 19:34	CLT 21:39	41%	13%	2.2%	54%
F9 1556 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 20:10	CLT 22:04	44%	16%	2.3%	71%worse than usual
F9 2452 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 13:13	CLT 15:04	46%	18%	1.0%	74%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON