Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 32%, against 21% on a calm day. Safest: WN 2712 at 08:32, 11%.

Safest bet today WN 2712 MCO 08:32 → DEN 09:52 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2632 MCO 16:20 → DEN 18:45 · 48% chance 15+ min late · usually 55% on time

Weather 32% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 6 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 2712 Southwest	MCO 08:32	DEN 09:52	11%	1%	0.2%	no record
WN 2835 Southwest	MCO 09:47	DEN 11:06	14%	2%	0.2%	no record
UA 1022 United Flight history →	MCO 10:00	DEN 12:00	16%	4%	0.3%	90%
UA 1520 United Flight history →	MCO 12:50	DEN 14:51	26%	8%	0.4%	93%worse than usual
WN 2631 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 12:30	DEN 14:20	28%	6%	0.2%	60%
WN 2714 Southwest	MCO 14:04	DEN 15:56	31%	7%	0.2%	no record
UA 667 United	MCO 15:29	DEN 17:51	33%	11%	0.5%	no record
F9 4919 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 13:24	DEN 15:29	33%	11%	0.7%	85%worse than usual
UA 1770 United Flight history →	MCO 17:17	DEN 19:45	35%	9%	0.6%	69%
WN 2633 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 18:25	DEN 20:55	40%	7%	0.5%	63%
WN 2716 Southwest	MCO 19:45	DEN 21:38	41%	10%	0.8%	no record
WN 2715 Southwest	MCO 17:00	DEN 18:52	47%	8%	0.5%	no record
F9 3311 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 17:29	DEN 19:34	47%	15%	1.0%	76%worse than usual
WN 2632 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 16:20	DEN 18:45	48%	11%	0.4%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON