Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 21%, against 11% on a calm day. Safest: WN 3018 at 06:45, 4%.

Safest bet that day WN 3018 MCO 06:45 → IND 09:13 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4923 MCO 17:10 → IND 19:45 · 48% chance 15+ min late · usually 55% on time

Weather 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3018 Southwest	MCO 06:45	IND 09:13	4%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 2642 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 06:35	IND 08:55	5%	1%	0.8%	96%
F9 1539 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 07:46	IND 10:21	11%	6%	1.2%	86%
F9 3761 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 07:25	IND 09:58	11%	5%	1.2%	75%
WN 4776 Southwest	MCO 08:45	IND 11:14	12%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 4655 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 10:10	IND 12:35	14%	3%	0.7%	94%
WN 2174 Southwest	MCO 12:01	IND 14:29	26%	5%	0.7%	no record
WN 4721 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 13:05	IND 15:30	27%	6%	0.8%	84%worse than usual
F9 4837 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 15:00	IND 17:37	37%	12%	1.8%	79%worse than usual
WN 4591 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 20:45	IND 23:15	41%	16%	1.3%	40%
WN 4923 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 17:10	IND 19:45	48%	26%	1.3%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON