Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 17 nonstops

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 23%, against 13% on a calm day. Safest: AA 938 at 06:30, 8%.

Safest bet that day AA 938 MCO 06:30 → ORD 08:36 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 2089 MCO 16:41 → ORD 18:59 · 44% chance 15+ min late · usually 23% on time

Weather 23% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 938 American Flight history →	MCO 06:30	ORD 08:36	8%	3%	1.3%	91%
UA 1150 United Flight history →	MCO 07:09	ORD 09:18	10%	4%	0.8%	89%
UA 2683 United Flight history →	MCO 09:40	ORD 11:48	11%	3%	0.8%	94%
AA 465 American Flight history →	MCO 08:33	ORD 10:38	12%	4%	1.3%	84%
UA 1993 United	MCO 07:10	ORD 09:12	12%	4%	0.8%	no record
AA 3018 American Flight history →	MCO 07:51	ORD 09:59	13%	5%	1.3%	88%
UA 2466 United Flight history →	MCO 10:52	ORD 13:02	13%	5%	0.7%	92%
F9 3043 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 07:00	ORD 09:11	19%	6%	1.2%	78%
UA 2475 United Flight history →	MCO 12:34	ORD 14:42	22%	9%	0.8%	82%
AA 2067 American Flight history →	MCO 11:38	ORD 13:45	22%	8%	0.9%	91%worse than usual
AA 1645 American	MCO 11:43	ORD 13:49	22%	9%	0.9%	no record
UA 2481 United Flight history →	MCO 14:25	ORD 16:43	23%	10%	0.8%	72%
UA 2071 United Flight history →	MCO 16:21	ORD 18:39	36%	12%	1.2%	58%
AA 2066 American Flight history →	MCO 15:10	ORD 17:28	37%	14%	0.9%	51%
F9 2791 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 20:59	ORD 23:10	42%	17%	2.1%	58%
UA 1621 United Flight history →	MCO 19:40	ORD 22:00	44%	18%	1.2%	70%worse than usual
AA 2089 American Flight history →	MCO 16:41	ORD 18:59	44%	13%	1.2%	23%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON