Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 35%, against 16% on a calm day. Safest: WN 2678 at 20:50, 35%.

Nonstops that day


WN 2678 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 20:50	PBI 22:05	35%	15%	1.3%	63%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach West Palm Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:03DL 1548	1h 02m Atlanta	ATL 08:05 → PBI 09:56DL 1311	4h 26m	94%	83%
Delta Details →	MCO 11:05 → JFK 13:46DL 2049	1h 59m New York	JFK 15:45 → PBI 19:04DL 1638	7h 59m	96%	83%
Delta Details →	MCO 07:00 → LGA 09:41DL 1573	1h 39m New York	LGA 11:20 → PBI 14:15DL 2396	7h 15m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	MCO 09:05 → ATL 10:45DL 1505	3h 13m Atlanta	ATL 13:58 → PBI 15:50DL 838	6h 45m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	MCO 06:15 → ATL 07:58DL 1494	3h 05m Atlanta	ATL 11:03 → PBI 12:54DL 1190	6h 39m	99%	81%
United Details →	MCO 07:40 → EWR 10:25UA 577	2h 42m Newark	EWR 13:07 → PBI 16:09UA 1797	8h 29m	100%	81%
Delta Details →	MCO 10:05 → ATL 11:41DL 2204	3h 46m Atlanta	ATL 15:27 → PBI 17:22DL 1458	7h 17m	98%	80%
Southwest Details →	MCO 15:00 → BWI 17:25WN 962	3h 15m Baltimore	BWI 20:40 → PBI 23:20WN 1045	8h 20m	100%	80%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	MCO 16:29 → PHL 19:04AA 3153	46m Philadelphia	PHL 19:50 → PBI 22:40AA 3145	6h 11m	50%	35%
American Details →	MCO 15:45 → DFW 17:47AA 2143	1h 03m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:50 → PBI 22:45AA 2467	7h 00m	53%	33%
JetBlue Details →	MCO 14:31 → LGA 17:05B6 698	55m New York	LGA 18:00 → PBI 21:05B6 1761	6h 34m	25%	14%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON