Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 6:27 am at Orlando)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 39%, against 20% on a calm day. Safest: B6 1042 at 10:41, 28%.

Nonstops today


B6 1042 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 10:41	ROC 13:28	28%	11%	0.7%	65%
WN 2791 Southwest	MCO 14:30	ROC 17:19	50%	17%	0.8%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Rochester on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	MCO 07:09 → ORD 09:18UA 1150	2h 34m Chicago	ORD 11:52 → ROC 14:49UA 3629 · flown by Republic	7h 40m	96%	85%
Southwest Details →	MCO 09:10 → MDW 10:55WN 4037	2h 25m Chicago	MDW 13:20 → ROC 15:55WN 2877	6h 45m	100%	83%
American Details →	MCO 15:10 → ORD 17:28AA 2066	3h 49m Chicago	ORD 21:17 → ROC 00:10 +1AA 3823 · flown by Envoy	9h 00m	94%	83%
United Details →	MCO 06:30 → EWR 09:15UA 1105	1h 02m Newark	EWR 10:17 → ROC 11:40UA 3647 · flown by Republic	5h 10m	92%	79%
Southwest Details →	MCO 07:40 → BWI 09:55WN 1956	1h 05m Baltimore	BWI 11:00 → ROC 12:15WN 2802	4h 35m	88%	78%
American Details →	MCO 16:30 → PHL 19:04AA 3153	3h 06m Philadelphia	PHL 22:10 → ROC 23:41AA 6090 · flown by Piedmont	7h 11m	100%	77%
American Details →	MCO 07:28 → PHL 10:05AA 1228	3h 12m Philadelphia	PHL 13:17 → ROC 14:48AA 5907 · flown by Piedmont	7h 17m	99%	77%
American Details →	MCO 16:48 → ORD 18:50AA 1782	2h 13m Chicago	ORD 21:03 → ROC 23:56AA 4219 · flown by Envoy	7h 08m	88%	75%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	MCO 18:39 → PHL 21:18AA 2952	52m Philadelphia	PHL 22:10 → ROC 23:41AA 6090 · flown by Piedmont	5h 02m	42%	32%
Southwest Details →	MCO 16:05 → MDW 18:00WN 2658	50m Chicago	MDW 18:50 → ROC 21:33WN 2220	5h 28m	41%	29%
JetBlue Details →	MCO 18:38 → JFK 21:29B6 1284	56m New York	JFK 22:25 → ROC 00:04 +1B6 1186	5h 26m	42%	27%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON