Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 5:32 pm at Orlando); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 63%, against 22% on a calm day. Safest: WN 2752 at 21:55, 61%.

Nonstops today


WN 2752 Southwest	MCO 21:55	RSW 23:03	61%	29%	0.9%	no record
WN 4709 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 20:50	RSW 22:00	65%	34%	0.8%	59%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Myers on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	MCO 17:35 → CLT 19:34AA 2082	1h 22m Charlotte	CLT 20:56 → RSW 22:52AA 1176	5h 17m	57%	31%

No one-ticket connection fits with layovers up to 4 hours that day. Try any airlines.

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON