tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:58 am at Orlando)
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: American via O'Hare, leaving 06:30, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Santa Ana on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 51% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Ana on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 3 h behind Orlando). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → MCO 06:30 → ORD 08:36AA 938 3h 29m Chicago ORD 12:05 → SNA 14:42AA 661 11h 12m 100% 85%
SouthwestDetails → MCO 08:10 → DEN 10:00WN 2629 2h 45m Denver DEN 12:45 → SNA 14:10WN 1794 9h 00m 100% 82%
SouthwestDetails → MCO 06:20 → DEN 08:10WN 2628 3h 15m Denver DEN 11:25 → SNA 12:50WN 4175 9h 30m 100% 82%
UnitedDetails → MCO 08:00 → DEN 10:02UA 1714 3h 23m Denver DEN 13:25 → SNA 14:57UA 1707 9h 57m 100% 81%
AlaskaDetails → MCO 07:00 → SEA 10:09AS 395 3h 40m Seattle SEA 13:49 → SNA 16:41AS 773 12h 41m 100% 79%
AmericanDetails → MCO 05:30 → DFW 07:26AA 2677 59m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:25 → SNA 09:33AA 2680 7h 03m 94% 78%
AmericanDetails → MCO 07:30 → PHX 09:02AA 2015 1h 15m Phoenix PHX 10:17 → SNA 11:57AA 2283 7h 27m 91% 78%
SouthwestDetails → MCO 06:45 → LAS 08:25WN 2365 2h 05m Las Vegas LAS 10:30 → SNA 11:40WN 2092 7h 55m 100% 78%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → MCO 15:38 → CLT 17:21AA 2117 54m Charlotte CLT 18:15 → SNA 20:29AA 1139 7h 51m 61% 44%
DeltaDetails → MCO 15:00 → MSP 17:39DL 1208 49m Minneapolis MSP 18:28 → SNA 20:20DL 2107 8h 20m 60% 43%
AmericanDetails → MCO 18:26 → DFW 20:30AA 2385 46m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:16 → SNA 22:24AA 348 6h 58m 51% 38%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON