Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:51 pm at Orlando); 3 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 55%, against 30% on a calm day. Safest: G4 1434 at 21:48, 55%.

Nonstops today


G4 1434 Allegiant	MCO 21:48	TYS 23:33	55%	37%	1.3%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Knoxville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MCO 15:38 → ATL 17:14DL 1576	3h 50m Atlanta	ATL 21:04 → TYS 22:07DL 5224 · flown by Endeavor	6h 29m	91%	76%
United Details →	MCO 16:45 → IAD 19:08UA 413	3h 02m Dulles	IAD 22:10 → TYS 23:49UA 4304 · flown by CommuteAir	7h 04m	91%	75%
Delta Details →	MCO 17:45 → ATL 19:47DL 1150	3h 06m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → TYS 23:52DL 3072	6h 07m	89%	70%
Southwest Details →	MCO 15:45 → BNA 16:50WN 2606	3h 50m Nashville	BNA 20:40 → TYS 22:41WN 4523	6h 56m	100%	69%
Southwest Details →	MCO 15:00 → BWI 17:25WN 962	2h 30m Baltimore	BWI 19:55 → TYS 21:39WN 4621	6h 39m	96%	65%
American Details →	MCO 15:39 → MIA 16:50AA 2092	3h 58m Miami	MIA 20:48 → TYS 23:03AA 2025	7h 24m	88%	62%
Delta Details →	MCO 15:40 → ATL 17:30DL 1372	2h 04m Atlanta	ATL 19:34 → TYS 20:37DL 5203 · flown by Endeavor	4h 57m	80%	62%
American Details →	MCO 15:10 → ORD 17:28AA 2066	1h 41m Chicago	ORD 19:09 → TYS 21:58AA 5001 · flown by SkyWest	6h 48m	77%	60%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	MCO 15:45 → DFW 17:47AA 2143	47m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:34 → TYS 21:59AA 5453 · flown by PSA	6h 14m	36%	25%
Southwest Details →	MCO 17:20 → BNA 18:30WN 4711	50m Nashville	BNA 19:20 → TYS 21:15WN 694	3h 55m	33%	21%
American Details →	MCO 17:48 → DFW 19:47AA 1288	54m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:41 → TYS 23:51AA 1081	6h 03m	32%	19%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON