Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 28%, against 18% on a calm day. Safest: WN 2905 at 05:10, 6%.

Safest bet that day WN 2905 MDW 05:10 → LGA 08:16 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 556 MDW 17:15 → LGA 20:20 · 46% chance 15+ min late · usually 30% on time

Weather 28% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2905 Southwest	MDW 05:10	LGA 08:16	6%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 2801 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 05:15	LGA 08:15	6%	1%	0.7%	93%
WN 2038 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 08:05	LGA 11:20	16%	2%	0.7%	96%worse than usual
WN 2906 Southwest	MDW 08:20	LGA 11:26	17%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 147 Southwest	MDW 09:28	LGA 12:34	20%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 4044 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 09:50	LGA 12:55	22%	3%	0.7%	75%
WN 241 Southwest	MDW 12:50	LGA 15:56	36%	6%	0.7%	no record
WN 2803 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 12:55	LGA 16:00	38%	6%	0.7%	52%
WN 4120 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 19:45	LGA 23:00	39%	7%	0.7%	27%
WN 3337 Southwest	MDW 14:40	LGA 17:46	44%	7%	0.7%	no record
WN 2804 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 14:50	LGA 17:55	44%	6%	0.7%	59%
WN 556 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 17:15	LGA 20:20	46%	8%	0.7%	30%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON