Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:27 pm at Miami); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: AA 2518 at 20:59 is the safest bet, 31% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 42%.

Nonstops today


AA 2518 American Flight history →	MIA 20:59	IND 23:50	31%	9%	0.3%	69%
AA 2252 American Flight history →	MIA 16:31	IND 18:49	42%	11%	0.2%	65%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Indianapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	MIA 16:10 → ORD 18:53UA 2106	2h 32m Chicago	ORD 21:25 → IND 23:44UA 3660 · flown by Republic	7h 34m	93%	86%
Delta Details →	MIA 16:51 → ATL 18:57DL 1323	2h 59m Atlanta	ATL 21:56 → IND 23:36DL 3153	6h 45m	97%	78%
American Details →	MIA 17:05 → ORD 19:26AA 3304	1h 21m Chicago	ORD 20:47 → IND 23:06AA 4594 · flown by Republic	6h 01m	79%	73%
Southwest Details →	MIA 16:00 → BNA 17:25WN 4799	3h 10m Nashville	BNA 20:35 → IND 22:55WN 539	6h 55m	97%	73%
Delta Details →	MIA 18:00 → ATL 20:14DL 1386	2h 50m Atlanta	ATL 23:04 → IND 00:41 +1DL 2657	6h 41m	96%	72%
Delta Details →	MIA 16:00 → ATL 18:25DL 1579	2h 26m Atlanta	ATL 20:51 → IND 22:27DL 1482	6h 27m	95%	71%
American Details →	MIA 15:30 → DCA 18:13AA 3138	1h 22m Washington	DCA 19:35 → IND 21:30AA 4520 · flown by Republic	6h 00m	87%	67%
United Details →	MIA 16:53 → IAH 18:56UA 1216	1h 03m Houston	IAH 19:59 → IND 23:26UA 465	6h 33m	80%	62%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	MIA 17:00 → DAL 19:00WN 1374	55m Dallas	DAL 19:55 → IND 23:05WN 2250	6h 05m	52%	27%
American Details →	MIA 17:48 → DFW 19:58AA 2828	46m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:44 → IND 23:58AA 766	6h 10m	33%	18%
American Details →	MIA 16:38 → DCA 18:47AA 2716	48m Washington	DCA 19:35 → IND 21:30AA 4520 · flown by Republic	4h 52m	0%	0%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON