Today looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 11–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today DL 5723 MKE 13:18 → LGA 16:36 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest DL 5825 MKE 17:50 → LGA 21:14 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 3 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 5723 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	MKE 13:18	LGA 16:36	11%	5%	0.3%	82%
DL 5613 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	MKE 13:18	LGA 16:47	13%	6%	0.2%	44%
YX 5612 Republic	MKE 17:41	LGA 21:09	13%	8%	0.3%	no record
DL 5825 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	MKE 17:50	LGA 21:14	14%	7%	0.4%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON