Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 7:36 am at Monterey)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: American via Phoenix, leaving 16:14, is the safest bet: 36% chance of reaching Dallas-Fort Worth on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 52% of the time.

Nonstops today


AA 2140 American Flight history →	MRY 12:42	DFW 18:25	40%	9%	0.9%	71%worse than usual
AA 2879 American Flight history →	MRY 12:41	DFW 18:11	42%	9%	0.9%	73%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 2 h ahead of Monterey). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	MRY 12:00 → SFO 12:56UA 5557 · flown by SkyWest	3h 42m San Francisco	SFO 16:38 → DFW 22:04UA 1336	8h 04m	98%	72%
American Details →	MRY 10:04 → PHX 12:07AA 6348 · flown by SkyWest	1h 28m Phoenix	PHX 13:35 → DFW 18:12AA 1079	6h 08m	99%	71%
American Details →	MRY 12:35 → PHX 14:31AA 3720 · flown by Envoy	3h 57m Phoenix	PHX 18:28 → DFW 22:52AA 2608	8h 17m	100%	68%
Alaska Details →	MRY 14:39 → SAN 16:14AS 3346 · flown by SkyWest	1h 36m San Diego	SAN 17:50 → DFW 22:48AS 689	6h 09m	91%	67%
American Details →	MRY 16:14 → PHX 18:14AA 6268 · flown by SkyWest	2h 07m Phoenix	PHX 20:21 → DFW 00:48 +1AA 2603	6h 34m	95%	63%
United Details →	MRY 08:00 → SFO 08:56UA 5502 · flown by SkyWest	1h 29m San Francisco	SFO 10:25 → DFW 16:08UA 2842	6h 08m	76%	56%
United Details →	MRY 12:29 → DEN 16:19UA 4713 · flown by SkyWest	2h 34m Denver	DEN 18:53 → DFW 21:59UA 1565	7h 30m	96%	54%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	MRY 15:05 → SAN 16:39AS 3221 · flown by SkyWest	1h 11m San Diego	SAN 17:50 → DFW 22:48AS 689	5h 43m	72%	53%
American Details →	MRY 16:14 → PHX 18:14AA 6268 · flown by SkyWest	46m Phoenix	PHX 19:00 → DFW 23:25AA 633	5h 11m	52%	36%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON