Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 44%, against 29% on a calm day. Safest: OO 4633 at 19:03, 33%.

Safest bet today OO 4633 MRY 19:03 → SFO 19:54 · 33% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 5502 MRY 08:00 → SFO 08:56 · 48% chance 15+ min late · usually 30% on time

Weather 44% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 29% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 4633 SkyWest	MRY 19:03	SFO 19:54	33%	10%	1.2%	no record
UA 5557 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MRY 12:00	SFO 12:56	45%	19%	0.6%	41%
OO 5249 SkyWest	MRY 12:01	SFO 12:51	45%	16%	0.6%	no record
OO 4758 SkyWest	MRY 15:40	SFO 16:54	47%	11%	0.5%	no record
UA 4729 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MRY 15:30	SFO 16:28	48%	14%	0.5%	62%
UA 5502 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MRY 08:00	SFO 08:56	48%	20%	1.1%	30%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON