Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:48 pm at Minneapolis); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: American via DFW, leaving 15:11, is the safest bet: 78% chance of reaching Asheville on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 62% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Asheville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Asheville is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	MSP 15:11 → DFW 17:50AA 2145	1h 40m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:30 → AVL 22:56AA 4260 · flown by Envoy	6h 45m	90%	78%
Delta Details →	MSP 15:58 → ATL 19:41DL 1028	3h 05m Atlanta	ATL 22:46 → AVL 23:46DL 3116	6h 48m	98%	76%
American Details →	MSP 17:47 → CLT 21:29AA 2151	1h 46m Charlotte	CLT 23:15 → AVL 00:15 +1AA 5588 · flown by PSA	5h 28m	96%	59%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	MSP 15:16 → ORD 16:58UA 1531	47m Chicago	ORD 17:45 → AVL 20:48UA 5663 · flown by SkyWest	4h 32m	62%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON