tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:47 pm at Minneapolis); 2 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: United via Bush, leaving 17:42, is the safest bet: 72% chance of reaching New Orleans on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 57% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New Orleans on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → MSP 17:42 → IAH 20:37UA 283 1h 38m Houston IAH 22:15 → MSY 23:26UA 2474 5h 44m 92% 72%
AmericanDetails → MSP 18:02 → ORD 20:10AA 4465 · flown by Republic 1h 10m Chicago ORD 21:20 → MSY 23:47AA 3896 · flown by Envoy 5h 45m 88% 64%
SouthwestDetails → MSP 17:40 → STL 19:10WN 2974 2h 40m St Louis STL 21:50 → MSY 23:40WN 3964 6h 00m 98% 63%
DeltaDetails → MSP 17:18 → ATL 21:05DL 1036 1h 02m Atlanta ATL 22:07 → MSY 22:37DL 2072 5h 19m 85% 58%
SouthwestDetails → MSP 19:15 → MDW 20:50WN 4115 1h 25m Chicago MDW 22:15 → MSY 00:36 +1WN 1508 5h 21m 84% 53%
UnitedDetails → MSP 17:13 → ORD 19:00UA 658 1h 11m Chicago ORD 20:11 → MSY 22:46UA 1761 5h 33m 82% 52%
AmericanDetails → MSP 17:47 → CLT 21:29AA 2151 1h 27m Charlotte CLT 22:56 → MSY 23:59AA 608 6h 12m 92% 43%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → MSP 19:15 → MDW 20:50WN 4115 50m Chicago MDW 21:40 → MSY 23:55WN 2836 4h 40m 57% 32%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON