tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 10:12 am at Minneapolis)
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops today

All 1 nonstop →
DL 5518 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record MSP 19:55 ORF 23:47 36% 11% 1.2% 64%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Norfolk on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Norfolk is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → MSP 10:31 → ORD 12:16AA 4162 · flown by Envoy 2h 16m Chicago ORD 14:32 → ORF 17:56AA 4434 · flown by Republic 6h 25m 97% 85%
UnitedDetails → MSP 17:05 → IAD 20:43UA 3678 · flown by Republic 1h 52m Dulles IAD 22:35 → ORF 23:44UA 2677 5h 39m 97% 81%
DeltaDetails → MSP 16:15 → DTW 18:59DL 1476 2h 41m Detroit DTW 21:40 → ORF 23:32DL 412 6h 17m 99% 78%
UnitedDetails → MSP 13:08 → ORD 14:53UA 5570 · flown by SkyWest 3h 22m Chicago ORD 18:15 → ORF 21:43UA 5686 · flown by SkyWest 7h 35m 98% 72%
DeltaDetails → MSP 15:58 → ATL 19:41DL 1028 2h 13m Atlanta ATL 21:54 → ORF 23:44DL 2338 6h 46m 96% 71%
UnitedDetails → MSP 10:14 → EWR 14:00UA 1637 3h 40m Newark EWR 17:40 → ORF 19:22UA 3478 · flown by Republic 8h 08m 97% 70%
DeltaDetails → MSP 10:32 → ATL 14:04DL 1046 3h 03m Atlanta ATL 17:07 → ORF 18:54DL 1346 7h 22m 99% 68%
AmericanDetails → MSP 10:56 → CLT 14:36AA 2154 3h 42m Charlotte CLT 18:18 → ORF 19:40AA 2913 7h 44m 100% 67%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → MSP 17:18 → ATL 21:05DL 1036 49m Atlanta ATL 21:54 → ORF 23:44DL 2338 5h 26m 74% 55%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON