Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:34 am at Minneapolis)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Southwest via Midway, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 92% chance of reaching Providence on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 70% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Providence on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Providence is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	MSP 05:00 → MDW 06:30WN 2520	1h 10m Chicago	MDW 07:40 → PVD 10:55WN 784	4h 55m	100%	92%
American Details →	MSP 06:10 → ORD 08:05AA 4444 · flown by Republic	1h 25m Chicago	ORD 09:30 → PVD 13:01AA 3453 · flown by Envoy	5h 51m	97%	90%
Delta Details →	MSP 10:32 → ATL 14:04DL 1046	3h 36m Atlanta	ATL 17:40 → PVD 20:09DL 2659	8h 37m	99%	85%
United Details →	MSP 06:00 → ORD 07:44UA 307	3h 01m Chicago	ORD 10:45 → PVD 14:25UA 4703 · flown by SkyWest	7h 25m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	MSP 06:04 → DTW 08:47DL 1461	1h 18m Detroit	DTW 10:05 → PVD 12:03DL 3961 · flown by SkyWest	4h 59m	98%	85%
American Details →	MSP 10:31 → ORD 12:16AA 4162 · flown by Envoy	2h 53m Chicago	ORD 15:09 → PVD 18:25AA 3771 · flown by Envoy	6h 54m	99%	84%
American Details →	MSP 14:02 → ORD 15:45AA 3719 · flown by Envoy	3h 29m Chicago	ORD 19:14 → PVD 22:43AA 1293	7h 41m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	MSP 16:15 → DTW 18:59DL 1476	2h 31m Detroit	DTW 21:30 → PVD 23:36DL 3795 · flown by SkyWest	6h 21m	99%	83%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	MSP 17:46 → DCA 21:27AA 5416 · flown by PSA	1h 01m Washington	DCA 22:28 → PVD 23:59AA 5017 · flown by PSA	5h 13m	70%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON