Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:54 am at Minneapolis)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, DL 1766 at 06:55, with a 5% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


DL 1766 Delta Flight history →	MSP 06:55	PWM 10:42	5%	2%	0.1%	93%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	MSP 12:17 → IAD 15:50UA 3695 · flown by Republic	1h 40m Dulles	IAD 17:30 → PWM 19:27UA 3651 · flown by Republic	6h 10m	100%	90%
United Details →	MSP 17:05 → IAD 20:43UA 3678 · flown by Republic	1h 24m Dulles	IAD 22:07 → PWM 00:00 +1UA 3459 · flown by Republic	5h 55m	95%	88%
American Details →	MSP 10:31 → ORD 12:16AA 4162 · flown by Envoy	3h 12m Chicago	ORD 15:28 → PWM 19:02AA 4774 · flown by Republic	7h 31m	99%	87%
United Details →	MSP 06:00 → EWR 09:40UA 1246	2h 19m Newark	EWR 11:59 → PWM 13:25UA 3685 · flown by Republic	6h 25m	97%	87%
American Details →	MSP 16:03 → ORD 17:59AA 4727 · flown by Republic	1h 58m Chicago	ORD 19:57 → PWM 23:25AA 4504 · flown by Republic	6h 22m	99%	86%
United Details →	MSP 05:45 → DEN 06:53UA 2041	3h 01m Denver	DEN 09:54 → PWM 15:49UA 1598	9h 04m	100%	84%
Southwest Details →	MSP 05:25 → BWI 08:50WN 3658	2h 05m Baltimore	BWI 10:55 → PWM 12:34WN 1125	6h 09m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	MSP 06:04 → DTW 08:47DL 1461	1h 13m Detroit	DTW 10:00 → PWM 11:55DL 426	4h 51m	98%	83%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	MSP 17:46 → DCA 21:27AA 5416 · flown by PSA	49m Washington	DCA 22:16 → PWM 23:59AA 2978	5h 13m	66%	39%
Delta Details →	MSP 18:10 → JFK 22:09DL 5244 · flown by Endeavor	50m New York	JFK 22:59 → PWM 00:52 +1DL 5411 · flown by Endeavor	5h 42m	48%	31%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON