Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 35%, against 17% on a calm day. Safest: WN 2976 at 06:00, 9%.

Safest bet today WN 2976 MSY 06:00 → AUS 07:30 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest WN 2979 MSY 16:00 → AUS 17:30 · 61% chance 15+ min late · usually 32% on time

Weather 35% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2976 Southwest Flight history →	MSY 06:00	AUS 07:30	9%	2%	0.5%	92%
WN 3085 Southwest	MSY 06:10	AUS 07:48	9%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 2977 Southwest Flight history →	MSY 08:10	AUS 09:35	23%	4%	0.5%	79%
WN 4902 Southwest Flight history →	MSY 22:40	AUS 00:10	28%	8%	0.9%	56%
WN 3088 Southwest	MSY 16:36	AUS 18:14	31%	7%	0.9%	no record
WN 425 Southwest	MSY 09:55	AUS 11:34	33%	4%	0.4%	no record
WN 448 Southwest	MSY 19:05	AUS 20:43	37%	9%	0.9%	no record
DL 4016 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSY 15:51	AUS 17:38	48%	18%	0.8%	78%worse than usual
WN 311 Southwest Flight history →	MSY 13:45	AUS 15:15	54%	14%	0.3%	36%
WN 3087 Southwest	MSY 13:55	AUS 15:34	55%	14%	0.3%	no record
WN 2979 Southwest Flight history →	MSY 16:00	AUS 17:30	61%	16%	0.4%	32%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON