Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:20 am at New Orleans)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 27% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


WN 1513 Southwest	MSY 14:20	SAT 16:34	27%	6%	0.7%	no record
WN 4951 Southwest Flight history →	MSY 15:05	SAT 16:40	27%	6%	0.7%	41%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Antonio on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	MSY 05:15 → IAH 06:34UA 2744	3h 05m Houston	IAH 09:39 → SAT 10:46UA 6201 · flown by Mesa	5h 31m	99%	87%
Southwest Details →	MSY 05:30 → HOU 06:45WN 4547	2h 40m Houston	HOU 09:25 → SAT 10:25WN 1432	4h 55m	97%	86%
Southwest Details →	MSY 05:40 → MDW 08:00WN 498	1h 45m Chicago	MDW 09:45 → SAT 12:40WN 2075	7h 00m	97%	85%
Southwest Details →	MSY 05:20 → DAL 06:45WN 2964	3h 51m Dallas	DAL 10:36 → SAT 11:54WN 2855	6h 34m	100%	84%
Southwest Details →	MSY 07:25 → HOU 08:40WN 2995	1h 20m Houston	HOU 10:00 → SAT 11:07WN 1580	3h 42m	95%	81%
Southwest Details →	MSY 10:15 → BNA 11:50WN 2407	2h 05m Nashville	BNA 13:55 → SAT 16:23WN 2269	6h 08m	97%	78%
Southwest Details →	MSY 06:30 → DAL 07:55WN 3664	1h 55m Dallas	DAL 09:50 → SAT 10:55WN 2617	4h 25m	95%	77%
Southwest Details →	MSY 11:05 → DAL 12:30WN 1346	3h 30m Dallas	DAL 16:00 → SAT 17:14WN 2671	6h 09m	98%	75%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	MSY 12:20 → HOU 13:35WN 1642	1h 05m Houston	HOU 14:40 → SAT 15:45WN 2074	3h 25m	55%	41%
American Details →	MSY 14:07 → DCA 17:46AA 967	46m Washington	DCA 18:32 → SAT 21:13AA 1947	7h 06m	53%	31%
American Details →	MSY 18:01 → DFW 19:55AA 2194	53m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:48 → SAT 22:00AA 1406	3h 59m	51%	25%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON