Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 37–42% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today WN 3446 MSY 14:48 → STL 16:10 · 37% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2099 MSY 19:15 → STL 21:08 · 42% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 40% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 32% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 3446 Southwest	MSY 14:48	STL 16:10	37%	6%	0.1%	no record
WN 3021 Southwest Flight history →	MSY 19:10	STL 21:00	40%	8%	0.2%	53%
WN 2099 Southwest	MSY 19:15	STL 21:08	42%	7%	0.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON