tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 10:10 am at Martha's Vineyard)
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, B6 1225 at 10:58, with a 24% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today

All 1 nonstop →
B6 1225 JetBlue Flight history → MVY 10:58 BOS 11:45 24% 9% 0.7% 95%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Boston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → MVY 17:30 → DCA 19:15AA 4572 · flown by Republic 3h 15m Washington DCA 22:30 → BOS 23:59AA 4051 · flown by Envoy 6h 29m 97% 66%
DeltaDetails → MVY 11:42 → LGA 12:58DL 5662 · flown by Republic 3h 02m New York LGA 16:00 → BOS 17:37DL 5819 · flown by Republic 5h 55m 99% 63%
AmericanDetails → MVY 10:41 → PHL 12:08AA 4602 · flown by Republic 2h 49m Philadelphia PHL 14:57 → BOS 16:36AA 3073 5h 55m 100% 62%
DeltaDetails → MVY 13:18 → JFK 14:30DL 5859 · flown by Republic 3h 00m New York JFK 17:30 → BOS 19:16DL 5798 · flown by Republic 5h 58m 99% 62%
JetBlueDetails → MVY 17:26 → JFK 18:30B6 1539 3h 59m New York JFK 22:29 → BOS 23:59B6 1318 6h 33m 95% 57%
DeltaDetails → MVY 15:43 → LGA 16:59DL 5822 · flown by Republic 3h 01m New York LGA 20:00 → BOS 21:15DL 5800 · flown by Republic 5h 32m 96% 55%
AmericanDetails → MVY 12:22 → DCA 13:59AA 4574 · flown by Republic 3h 01m Washington DCA 17:00 → BOS 18:47AA 3207 6h 25m 96% 54%
AmericanDetails → MVY 13:51 → LGA 15:11AA 4570 · flown by Republic 57m New York LGA 16:08 → BOS 17:16AA 3224 3h 25m 84% 53%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON