Today: AA 4574 at 12:22 is the safest bet, 21% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 24–33%.

Safest bet today AA 4574 MVY 12:22 → DCA 13:59 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time Riskiest B6 1413 MVY 15:09 → DCA 16:47 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 55% on time

Against a calm day 26% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 25% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4574 American flown by Republic Flight history →	MVY 12:22	DCA 13:59	21%	4%	0.2%	67%
AA 4572 American flown by Republic Flight history →	MVY 17:30	DCA 19:15	24%	9%	0.5%	56%
B6 1413 JetBlue Flight history →	MVY 15:09	DCA 16:47	33%	14%	0.2%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON