tailodds FORECAST
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Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 81 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 462 at 06:40 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 10–39%.

Safest bet that day AA 462 LGA 06:40 → ORD 08:26 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest UA 602 LGA 17:25 → ORD 19:12 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 42% on time
Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.
AA 462 American Flight history → LGA 06:40 ORD 08:26 5% 2% 1.0% 93%
DL 2251 Delta Flight history → LGA 06:00 ORD 07:32 5% 2% 0.8% 93%
AA 4365 American flown by Republic Flight history → JFK 10:11 ORD 12:05 6% 3% 0.7% 89%
UA 2389 United Flight history → LGA 06:10 ORD 07:49 6% 2% 0.7% 89%
AA 3185 American Flight history → EWR 05:30 ORD 07:15 6% 3% 1.3% 88%
AA 4356 American flown by Republic Flight history → JFK 07:59 ORD 10:02 6% 2% 0.7% 85%
WN 2464 Southwest Flight history → LGA 06:00 MDW 07:20 6% 1% 1.0% 88%
UA 530 United Flight history → EWR 06:00 ORD 07:41 6% 2% 0.7% 92%
AA 3267 American Flight history → EWR 06:56 ORD 08:44 7% 3% 1.2% 88%
AA 788 American JFK 10:29 ORD 12:00 8% 4% 0.8% no record
AA 1600 American EWR 06:55 ORD 08:26 9% 3% 1.2% no record
AA 2079 American Flight history → LGA 12:14 ORD 13:59 9% 4% 0.8% 76%
AA 392 American Flight history → LGA 07:23 ORD 09:09 9% 2% 1.0% 87%
AA 589 American Flight history → LGA 08:50 ORD 10:37 10% 3% 0.8% 76%
WN 2465 Southwest Flight history → LGA 07:25 MDW 08:50 10% 2% 0.9% 76%
WN 4430 Southwest LGA 07:16 MDW 08:37 10% 2% 1.0% no record
DL 5640 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → JFK 19:35 ORD 21:52 10% 6% 0.8% 65%
AA 3170 American Flight history → EWR 10:40 ORD 12:25 10% 4% 1.0% 84%
AA 2223 American Flight history → LGA 09:08 ORD 10:39 11% 4% 0.8% 88%
AA 2907 American JFK 07:14 ORD 08:46 11% 3% 0.9% no record
UA 1008 United LGA 07:20 ORD 08:51 11% 3% 0.7% no record
DL 2985 Delta Flight history → LGA 08:45 ORD 10:23 11% 3% 0.7% 80%
AA 3100 American Flight history → LGA 09:44 ORD 11:30 11% 3% 0.8% 79%
UA 1057 United Flight history → LGA 09:10 ORD 10:56 11% 3% 0.7% 84%
DL 2917 Delta Flight history → LGA 07:30 ORD 09:06 11% 3% 0.8% 81%
UA 2822 United Flight history → LGA 07:21 ORD 09:00 11% 2% 0.8% 83%
UA 1525 United Flight history → EWR 10:24 ORD 12:06 13% 4% 0.6% 79%
AA 3321 American Flight history → JFK 13:59 ORD 15:53 13% 3% 1.0% 79%
UA 1310 United Flight history → LGA 10:15 ORD 11:57 13% 3% 0.6% 80%
UA 623 United Flight history → LGA 08:05 ORD 09:44 13% 2% 0.7% 81%
UA 477 United LGA 09:23 ORD 10:53 13% 4% 0.7% no record
WN 806 Southwest LGA 08:56 MDW 10:16 13% 2% 0.9% no record
UA 1439 United EWR 11:20 ORD 12:57 14% 4% 0.7% no record
UA 2488 United Flight history → EWR 07:59 ORD 09:43 14% 3% 0.7% 88%
UA 2800 United Flight history → EWR 07:15 ORD 09:00 14% 3% 0.7% 88%
DL 2240 Delta Flight history → LGA 11:30 ORD 13:05 14% 3% 0.7% 74%
AA 1814 American LGA 10:04 ORD 11:35 14% 4% 0.8% no record
AA 386 American LGA 08:02 ORD 09:34 14% 3% 0.9% no record
UA 1166 United LGA 08:13 ORD 09:43 14% 3% 0.7% no record
UA 1875 United Flight history → EWR 11:25 ORD 13:08 15% 4% 0.7% 79%
UA 2754 United EWR 07:13 ORD 08:40 15% 3% 0.7% no record
WN 4573 Southwest Flight history → LGA 10:55 MDW 12:15 15% 3% 0.8% 85%
UA 2635 United Flight history → LGA 11:20 ORD 12:57 15% 4% 0.6% 74%
WN 2542 Southwest LGA 10:56 MDW 12:16 15% 3% 0.8% no record
UA 2290 United Flight history → EWR 09:20 ORD 11:04 16% 4% 0.7% 83%
B6 905 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 07:05 ORD 08:50 16% 4% 0.8% 90%
AA 1705 American Flight history → LGA 14:11 ORD 16:05 18% 6% 0.9% 66%
AA 2057 American Flight history → LGA 21:29 ORD 23:30 18% 9% 1.0% 55%
UA 2053 United Flight history → EWR 13:10 ORD 14:53 18% 5% 0.7% 77%
UA 714 United Flight history → LGA 13:25 ORD 15:02 19% 5% 0.6% 71%
WN 4996 Southwest Flight history → LGA 13:25 MDW 14:50 22% 5% 0.8% 48%
DL 2806 Delta Flight history → LGA 20:45 ORD 22:36 22% 9% 0.8% 59%
AA 2250 American Flight history → EWR 14:20 ORD 16:15 22% 9% 1.2% 57%
UA 1504 United Flight history → LGA 15:25 ORD 17:20 23% 8% 0.7% 61%
WN 1095 Southwest Flight history → LGA 15:25 MDW 17:05 23% 10% 0.8% 59%
DL 1390 Delta Flight history → LGA 16:00 ORD 18:03 24% 8% 0.7% 66%
UA 2788 United Flight history → EWR 14:45 ORD 16:28 25% 6% 0.7% 50%
UA 2199 United Flight history → LGA 14:28 ORD 16:14 25% 6% 0.7% 74%
DL 2226 Delta Flight history → LGA 14:45 ORD 16:30 25% 6% 0.7% 64%
AA 396 American Flight history → LGA 16:00 ORD 18:08 25% 8% 0.8% 64%
AA 3318 American Flight history → LGA 19:25 ORD 21:35 25% 10% 1.0% 59%
UA 1830 United Flight history → LGA 21:25 ORD 22:58 26% 9% 0.7% 56%
B6 405 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 14:29 ORD 16:16 26% 10% 0.8% 65%
UA 2768 United Flight history → LGA 20:25 ORD 22:12 28% 9% 0.7% 47%
DL 2503 Delta Flight history → LGA 17:00 ORD 19:10 28% 9% 0.7% 62%
WN 4746 Southwest Flight history → LGA 17:30 MDW 19:20 28% 13% 0.9% 54%
DL 2513 Delta Flight history → LGA 18:50 ORD 20:56 30% 10% 0.8% 57%
WN 2469 Southwest Flight history → LGA 21:30 MDW 23:00 30% 15% 1.0% 33%
UA 1156 United Flight history → LGA 16:25 ORD 18:17 30% 9% 0.7% 53%
AA 1936 American Flight history → EWR 17:21 ORD 19:23 30% 12% 1.2% 70%
B6 805 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 20:00 ORD 21:58 31% 13% 0.8% 35%
AA 752 American Flight history → LGA 17:29 ORD 19:43 31% 10% 0.9% 54%
UA 661 United Flight history → EWR 16:45 ORD 18:34 33% 8% 0.7% 50%
UA 546 United Flight history → EWR 20:19 ORD 22:06 33% 9% 0.7% 69%
UA 2446 United Flight history → LGA 19:25 ORD 21:12 33% 10% 0.7% 52%
UA 254 United Flight history → EWR 18:15 ORD 20:10 36% 9% 0.7% 44%
UA 1098 United Flight history → LGA 18:25 ORD 20:12 37% 10% 0.7% 39%
UA 602 United Flight history → LGA 17:25 ORD 19:12 39% 10% 0.7% 42%
DL 5119 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record JFK 10:30 ORD 12:20 14% 3% 7.0% 86%
DL 4725 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record JFK 07:30 ORD 09:25 26% 14% 12.5% 74%
DL 4783 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record JFK 15:00 ORD 17:11 26% 14% 23.6% 74%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON