Today: WN 3397 at 05:05 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–31%.

Safest bet today WN 3397 OAK 05:05 → SEA 07:10 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AS 536 OAK 12:16 → SEA 14:17 · 51% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 27% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3397 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 05:05	SEA 07:10	7%	1%	0.2%	92%
WN 3202 Southwest	OAK 05:33	SEA 07:04	9%	1%	0.2%	no record
AS 491 Alaska Flight history →	OAK 06:22	SEA 08:26	17%	3%	1.1%	92%
AS 705 Alaska Flight history →	OAK 06:57	SEA 08:58	19%	3%	1.1%	89%
WN 3082 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 21:30	SEA 23:35	22%	5%	0.5%	69%
WN 3081 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 09:05	SEA 11:05	23%	2%	0.2%	62%
WN 4747 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 17:30	SEA 19:30	31%	7%	0.5%	47%
WN 1048 Southwest	OAK 20:25	SEA 22:27	31%	6%	0.5%	no record
AS 1359 Alaska Flight history →	OAK 19:49	SEA 21:50	31%	6%	0.7%	74%
AS 1464 Alaska Flight history →	OAK 14:55	SEA 17:00	35%	7%	1.0%	65%
WN 1151 Southwest	OAK 12:30	SEA 14:33	45%	3%	0.2%	no record
AS 536 Alaska	OAK 12:16	SEA 14:17	51%	7%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON