tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:04 pm at Omaha); 1 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 20–22% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today

All 2 nonstops →
OH 5195 PSA OMA 14:02 PHL 18:02 20% 8% 1.0% no record
AA 5559 American flown by PSA Flight history → OMA 13:25 PHL 17:21 22% 8% 1.2% 48%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Philadelphia is 1 h ahead of Omaha). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → OMA 13:48 → DEN 14:35UA 1195 3h 19m Denver DEN 17:54 → PHL 23:30UA 1510 8h 42m 99% 73%
AmericanDetails → OMA 16:05 → ORD 17:46AA 4042 · flown by Envoy 1h 58m Chicago ORD 19:44 → PHL 23:02AA 532 5h 57m 100% 73%
DeltaDetails → OMA 13:40 → ATL 17:03DL 1125 3h 20m Atlanta ATL 20:23 → PHL 22:27DL 1174 7h 47m 98% 73%
DeltaDetails → OMA 17:40 → MSP 19:04DL 3948 · flown by SkyWest 1h 21m Minneapolis MSP 20:25 → PHL 23:56DL 2703 5h 16m 90% 73%
FrontierDetails → OMA 20:00 → DEN 20:50F9 1127 3h 09m Denver DEN 23:59 → PHL 05:39 +1F9 3340 8h 39m 94% 70%
UnitedDetails → OMA 12:57 → ORD 14:50UA 5587 · flown by SkyWest 3h 09m Chicago ORD 17:59 → PHL 21:19UA 1776 7h 22m 96% 69%
AmericanDetails → OMA 12:21 → DFW 13:53AA 2823 3h 37m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:30 → PHL 22:17AA 991 8h 56m 97% 63%
SouthwestDetails → OMA 16:15 → BNA 18:00WN 3126 2h 45m Nashville BNA 20:45 → PHL 23:54WN 676 6h 39m 99% 62%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → OMA 16:05 → ORD 17:46AA 4042 · flown by Envoy 54m Chicago ORD 18:40 → PHL 21:58AA 2443 4h 53m 71% 49%
UnitedDetails → OMA 15:13 → ORD 17:05UA 739 54m Chicago ORD 17:59 → PHL 21:19UA 1776 5h 06m 66% 48%
AmericanDetails → OMA 16:58 → DFW 19:01AA 2229 1h 18m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:19 → PHL 00:35 +1AA 2542 6h 37m 72% 45%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON